ROLESCast #009 Russian Invasion of Ukraine – Current Status and Outlook

*Edited and reconstructed based on the conversation between the two.

Yamaguchi: We are pleased to bring you the 9th ROLE Cast. Lecturer Yu Koizumi and Assistant Professor Ryo Yamaguchi from the University of Tokyo will once again talk about Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Koizumi: It turned out to be a big deal.

Yamaguchi: President Putin declared war on February 24th, and the invasion of Ukraine began at once. What is the current situation?

A well-prepared military operation with occupation

Koizumi: There is a map of Ukraine in the background.

　First of all, the Russian army is invading on a large scale from Russia and Belarus in the north, but the capital Kiev (Kyiv) is quite close to the border between Russia and Belarus. Kharkov (Kharkov), Ukraine's second largest city in the northeast, is only 30 kilometers from the border. Russia has gathered a large force here since last fall, and is sending them all at once to the south to threaten the big city.

　Russian armed forces gathered in eastern Donetsk and Lugansk, which had been occupied by pro-Russian armed forces, were also on the offensive.

　Finally, from the Crimean peninsula, which Russia forcibly annexed in 2014, troops that moved north are invading Ukraine.

　Generally speaking, the Russian army is invading Ukraine from the north, east, and south.

Yamaguchi: How much military power is Russia pouring into it?

Koizumi: Just before the outbreak of the war, US President Joe Biden said there were about 150,000 people.

At the same time, the US Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) gave a figure of 169,000 to 190,000 people. But that includes pro-Russian militants in the east, as well as security forces outside the military assembled by Russia, the press release said.

　This is, on the contrary, eerie, since the Russian army had gathered security forces for occupation after the invasion, even before the start of the war. In other words, they were thinking of a large-scale military operation with great care, and a military operation that would involve the occupation of a wide area.

　Even so, until just before, everyone was looking at it as "a bluff" and "a threat for negotiations", but on the 24th, the war actually started.

　Even if it were to start, there were speculations that it might be trying to sway Ukraine with limited military action in the eastern part of the country, but in reality it would turn into a complete all-out war. It's becoming It has started a great war to invade all but the West, which is blocked by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

The Ukrainian Army is holding out

When Putin mentioned the "demilitarization" and "de-Naziization" of Ukraine in his declaration of war, I had a bad feeling that he would attack the capital. bottom.

However, 99% of wars don't go according to plan. In fact, I have the impression that various problems are occurring in the Russian military as well, in terms of the Ukrainian counterattack, the logistics of the Russian military, and the morale of the Russian military.

I think Russia was aiming for a quick and quick decision, but I don't think it will be possible in the current situation. What do you think about that?

　It is said that the Russian army has not yet invested all of its strength, but if it invests any more, I think that the defense of the mainland of Russia will be neglected.

Koizumi: Preliminary predictions said that Kiev and Kharkov would fall in a few days. There is no doubt that we are in a dangerous situation as the Russian army is actually approaching us, but we are holding up well. Today is February 28th, the fifth day since the war began, and it is still enduring.

Then why is it so endurable? First of all, we must not forget that Ukraine is a military superpower.

　Ukraine has the second largest military power of the former Soviet Union, and according to this year's version of the "Military Balance" published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in the UK, the current military strength is 210,000. About people. In addition, Ukraine has now issued a general mobilization order to mobilize all healthy and mobile male citizens between the ages of 18 and 60.

　Another reason is that Russia started gathering troops on the Ukrainian border last spring, so the Ukrainian side had a long preparation period. The Russians gathered their forces in the spring, withdrew, and regrouped in the fall, so the Ukrainian side should naturally have established field positions around its major cities and borders.

The clumsiness of the Russian army that brought about a stagnation of the advance

Koizumi: I feel that there are more deficiencies on the Russian side in such places.

　The first is the logistics problem that Mr. Yamaguchi pointed out. In the web media of military experts called "War on the Rocks" in the United States, there is talk that the supply train may be insufficient before the start of the war, and it may not be possible to conduct a deep battle. There was a prediction that I think this is what is happening.

　The other thing is that I feel that Russia has largely underestimated Ukraine.

　Because Russia started airstrikes on the first day of the war, I thought, "This is going to be like the Gulf War." In other words, I thought that they would carry out thorough airstrikes to destroy the air force, air defense force, command and communication systems, and then the overwhelming ground forces would invade.

　However, during the airstrike on the first day, ground forces invaded at the same time. It also entered the most defended areas of Kiev and Kharkov. Furthermore, from the first day, they attempted to infiltrate the Kiev suburbs with helicopter units and take the airport on the outskirts of Kiev. In fact, we have taken some, but before we could hit the Ukrainian army, we suddenly invaded the Ukrainian army and launched an offensive. You can't do this if you don't lick the Ukrainian army.

If you think about it, Russia has fought the pro-Russian armed forces in the east against the Ukrainian army so far, so there were not many direct clashes between the Ukrainian army and the Russian army. Only on a few occasions did the two armies have fought on a large scale, such as the battles at Ilovaisk in Donbass and Debaltseve. At that time, the Ukrainian army was surrounded and if they didn't want to be beaten any more, they agreed to a ceasefire.

　Therefore, I have a feeling that the Ukrainian army's tenacity at the last minute is quite misunderstood, and that the price is coming.

As Mr. Yamaguchi pointed out, the morale of the Russian soldiers seemed to be low when they encountered the stubborn Ukrainian resistance. The equipment is abandoned, and I feel that the stress of being forced to live in tents along the border for months is building up.

　For a week or two before the start of the war, where should the soldiers go? I didn't understand it, and I was left behind at the station. What would they do if they marched? First, the hungry soldiers would loot. Some may quit their jobs.

　It feels like various mistakes have piled up and led to the stagnation of the advance.

Russia's Strategic Aims

Yamaguchi 　In war, it is out of the question to underestimate the opponent, and logistics is more important than equipment. There is a surprise that Russia, a military superpower, made such a silly mistake, or that it did not even make such a calculation.

Koizumi: Even I can't understand why the war is so crude.

Yamaguchi: I think there was some impatience somewhere, but in the midst of this battle situation, the ceasefire negotiations will be held on the 28th at the earliest.

What is the point of negotiation? Also, will there be a change in Russia's strategic objectives?

Koizumi: Speaking from the strategic point of view, Russia's strategic point is to change the national polity of Ukraine. Putin called President Zelensky a "neo-Nazi". Zelensky is Jewish, so there's no way he's a neo-Nazi, but he said that the Zelensky regime is a Nazi regime and that it's slaughtering Russian residents based on Nazi ideology. People who believe in it may believe it, but the majority of the international community do not believe it, and even from the Russians' point of view, it is "a bit...".

　Putin also said that Ukraine is secretly building nuclear weapons. This is also a story about why Ukraine was not found out while Iran and North Korea were found out long ago.

　In this way, it's rough at the initial disinformation stage. Since he is from the KGB, he thinks that he should have done a little better. They have started a war since they were created.

　Considering that they were actually aiming for Kiev from the very beginning of the war, I think that what Russia is aiming for is to depose the Zelensky administration, and eventually arrest and bring them to justice.

What Putin said before the start of the war was to neutralize and demilitarize Ukraine. I think they want to go to the point where the national leadership is put on trial and the military is dismantled, just like when the Empire of Japan was defeated long ago.

When Russia intervened in Ukraine in 2014, there was an idea to tear Ukraine apart. Russia even thought of dividing it into four parts: Novorossia in the east, Malorossia in the middle (Little Russia), Transcarpathia along the Carpathian Mountains in the west, and Crimea in the south, so that each would not be able to oppose Russia. but it didn't work. Russia wanted to take the lead and voluntarily separate itself from Ukraine like Crimea, but that didn't happen, and all it could do was create a conflict zone in the east.

　However, it wouldn't be strange for Russia to aim at something like that again this time.

What is the point of ceasefire negotiations?

Koizumi: So, I don't know yet if that can be done during the ceasefire negotiations.

　In Kiev, Kharkov and other cities, the Ukrainian army is very hard working and persistent. The general mobilization order has started the fight with Molotov cocktails even in the general public. And the morale of the Russian army is not very high either. When I think about it, I feel like I'm starting to wonder if Putin can force Ukraine to do what he originally aimed for.

　At the same time, the Russian army's offensive is slowing down, albeit stagnating. And little by little, he is expanding his domain.

　Both Ukraine and Russia are in a strange situation where time is both an enemy and an ally.

　From the Russian side, the area under their control will gradually expand over time. This is because military and air forces are overwhelmingly advantageous. However, as time passes, the soldiers' disgust for war grows.

　On the other hand, the Ukrainian side is very tenacious, but it is being pushed into the Russian side, so it will be bad as time passes. On the other hand, if you persist in this much, you will get sympathy and support from the international community. The West is also talking about whether to impose rather severe sanctions or whether to provide large-scale military aid.

In fact, the European Union (EU) has decided to provide military aid to Ukraine, but until now the United States has only supplied weapons that soldiers carry around, such as anti-tank missiles and Stinger surface-to-air missiles. On the other hand, at the EU press conference, they said they could even supply fighter planes.

　The more you stick with it, the more support you'll get, but since they won't fight with you, Russia will also gradually invade.

　Even though we both have time on our side, it's a race against time, and we're in a situation where we can't take our time.

　They are going to negotiate on the 28th in Gomel near the Belarusian border in Ukraine, but what will happen there?

　The Zelensky administration cannot accept all the goals pursued by Russia as they are. That would mean a complete dissolution of the state and coming under Russia's sphere of influence. I don't know why I've been fighting so persistently because it means I'll be made a vassal state.

　However, the Zelensky administration has said that it is okay to admit neutrality. NATO membership is currently written as a national policy in the Ukrainian constitution, but this was included in the 2019 revision, and it was not written before Russia attacked, but rather a neutrality clause is included. was The Ukrainian side says that it would be fine if it returned to the stage before Russia attacked.

　But from the Russian side, with such a large-scale operation that killed a lot of soldiers and received a backlash from within the country, it would probably not be possible to just go back to before 2014. . I think there is a point of negotiation in this area.

　It would be nice if we could find a common ground through discussion, but if it breaks down, the battle will continue even more intensely, so I think we are in a very critical situation.

Factors of Russia's Anti-War Demonstrations

Yamaguchi 　When Putin declares war, NATO will not intervene immediately, sanctions are limited in scale and effect, UN Security Council I think I was thinking about many things, such as rejecting the meeting's resolution and that Ukraine would be able to drop it immediately, but as time passed, it became less and less true. It is important where and how Russia compromises.

Next, I would like to ask about the impact on Russia's domestic politics. At this stage, anti-government demonstrations are small in scale and may be cracked down, but the situation will gradually change when the effects of economic sanctions begin to appear and the number of deaths on the Russian side increases.

What will happen to Russian politics in the future if dissatisfaction with and distrust of the Putin administration increases further?

Koizumi: Most of the anti-war demonstrations taking place in Russia are small scale, but some are quite large. I have never seen an anti-war demonstration in Russia. Although there have been protests against allegations of fraud in the lower house elections and the arrest of anti-government activist Alexei Navalny, the annexation of Crimea has been welcomed by nationalism in Russian society. Liberals like Navalny even said things like "Crimea won't be returned," so the nationalistic part of Russia's liberals was also in line.

　However, when it comes to the fact that the voices against the war are being raised in a fairly wide range this time, one of the factors is the resistance to attacking Ukraine, which is also a Slavic people. As Putin himself put it in his article last year, we all certainly have the feeling that we are one indivisible people.

But if that's the case, then why should we attack Ukraine, which is of the same ethnicity, and why do Russian youths pick up guns and kill Ukrainian youths? It will be

　It's a different story if there's some kind of reason for it, but no matter how you look at it, the Russian side's statement that's coming out this time can be answered in a second.

Anti-war demonstrations intensify tightening

Koizumi 　However, Russia is a country with extremely wide disparities.

　People in the middle class and above are highly educated, and those people get information from overseas from the Internet, saying, "I think this is strange" and "What Putin is saying is bullshit." Go out into the streets and hold an anti-war demonstration.

　However, 70% to 80% of ordinary people are busy with their daily lives and even look at foreign internet sites...they don't do much, those who watch the national broadcast in the morning and go out. , pretty much believes what the Russian government says. Just my guess, though.

So, while doubts about the war are growing more than ever, at the same time, Putin's style of media control is very effective.

Furthermore, during this war, the tightening has become even more severe. Russia's public prosecutor's office said on Wednesday that it would seek a maximum prison term of 20 years for those who cooperated with foreign governments and institutions against Russia's position during the "special military operation." I feel that anyone who raises doubts about the position of the Russian government is an enemy. After returning home, I started talking to her about whether this applies to you as well, and she said, "I can't go back to Russia anymore."

　While I am happy that the people are raising their voices against the war, I am concerned that the reaction to it will grow stronger.

Blow to domestic power base

Yamaguchi: I am sure that the Putin administration will suffer a great blow, but will this change the administration?

Koizumi: It's hard to hope for that, isn't it? From a European point of view, a leader who wages an unjust war that is not understood by the public should be brought down, but Putin has overcome such a situation by cracking down on it.

　In fact, whether it was the 2011 demonstration against the fraudulent lower house election or the 2021 demonstration against the detention of Navalny, they responded with thorough suppression. Neighboring Belarus also went to the point where the regime collapsed due to allegations of fraud in the presidential election, but the demonstration was suppressed by tremendous suppression. This is what happened in the former Soviet bloc. If you think about it, I don't think Putin will be able to do something like this again this time.

　However, I believe that Putin's war will have a domestic impact that cannot be ignored.

　There are two points, one is that the West imposes severe sanctions on Russian high-ranking officials, that is, the center of power, including Putin, so I think this will work quite well on Putin's domestic power base. think.

　Putin is a terrifying dictator, but at the same time he is able to wield that much power because he provides benefits to his allies around him. Since Putin started, allies, such as gas industry people, oil industry people, pipeline industry people, munitions industry people, etc., have not been able to get the profits they should have. When it comes to talking about a real estate secretly owned in London being frozen, I think people will say, "What the fuck, Putin?"

　I don't think Putin will fall from power anytime soon, but I think his reputation as a ruler and the top reigning over an oligarchic minority elite will be quite stingy. increase.

Decisions regarding the 2024 presidential election

　The other is the support of the entire nation.

　Putin is strong because the people follow him, not because Putin is strong. He's a dictator, but he's a populist dictator who really cares about polls and approval ratings. So I think it's quite a shock that the people started demonstrating instead of applauding the war he started.

　I'm not an economist, so I don't know how much it will affect Russia's current business sentiment when the economic sanctions start to come into effect, but it's possible that Russia's economic strength will gradually weaken. I think so.

In the midst of this, Russia will have a presidential election in March 2024, and an official announcement will be made around autumn next year. It is possible that Putin will have to make a decision about the 2024 presidential election in a situation where dissatisfaction is being directed at him from within the elite and from the general public.

　The situation is still unpredictable, but I would like to emphasize that it is not meaningless for the people to raise their voices against Putin and for us to decide to impose sanctions.

Concerns about "deterring escalation"

Yamaguchi: As concerns about this war, we hear that it will spread to other countries, or that if things go wrong, it will lead to World War III. What do you think?

And what kind of influence will it have on Japan?

Koizumi: It would be nice if the ceasefire negotiations could be concluded, but I would like it to be a ceasefire in a way that does not violate Ukraine's sovereignty. I think I have to.

　In order for a ceasefire to be possible in that way, the Ukrainian army must have the ability to be unbeatable for the time being, so the general public should be involved in the Western countries' military aid to Ukraine. There are criticisms that the war will be prolonged, but I think it is necessary to make sense. Not doing so would mean yielding to Russian military pressure and saying, "Unfortunately, I'm going to have Ukraine give up some of its sovereignty," so this shouldn't be allowed.

　It is difficult for Japan to provide military aid to Ukraine, but if that is the case, I think economic sanctions against Russia should be carried out with a strong sense of independence rather than a relationship with the West. Since there are countries that are being forced to change the existing order and are resisting, we should think that it is in our national interest to support it, and we should do it properly for Japan's security as well.

However, Russia is not a very soft country, so we still have to think about the danger of escalation.

On that point, I am very concerned that President Putin summoned Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov on the 27th, saying that the sanctions imposed by the West are outrageous, and that strategic nuclear weapons He instructed us to raise our readiness to the highest level.

　I have been studying Russia's nuclear strategy for a long time, and within Russia there is a concept of "deterrence of escalation". If the conflict escalates and it seems that it will be inconvenient for Russia somewhere, for example, it seems that we can win against the opponent we are fighting now, but a strong country like the United States will join the war. This means that when Japan is at a disadvantage to the United States and is likely to lose at this rate, it will use nuclear weapons on a limited basis. For example, by using only one or two nuclear weapons in an uninhabited place or on the sea, we send the message that war should be stopped.

　This kind of thinking exists in the military thought of the Russian army, and has been discussed since the mid-90s. In fact, in June 2020, Russia released a document showing its nuclear use criteria, which had been classified until then, and there are words that suggest this.

　Up to now, everyone has treated this as a matter of possibility, but when a major war actually began and relations with the West were bad, Putin summoned the Minister of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff to bring nuclear weapons to the highest level. He says to be prepared.

　In that case, for example, when the ceasefire negotiations do not go well, it is still a very imminent possibility that Russia will make some sort of nuclear threat, such as the use of nuclear weapons to threaten. Even if it is not sexual, it comes into view.

　Then what to do about it, the United States is very concerned about deterring Russia's escalation in the 2018 nuclear posture review under the Donald Trump administration, and Russia has issued one or two limited nuclear weapons. Then, they said that they should be able to reverse the limited use of nuclear weapons on a similar scale, so they developed a low-yield nuclear warhead and put it on a submarine-launched missile. In other words, if Russia implements it, the United States is also preparing to pay back without any change.

　Even if World War III is not possible, Russia will threaten to use only one nuclear weapon, and the United States will also use only one nuclear weapon. It's a dangerous situation.

　Furthermore, what Russian military researchers have been saying is that although Russia may use nuclear weapons as a threat, it may not actually cause any damage, but once nuclear weapons are used, Can you really predict what will happen after that? If nuclear weapons were used on the territory of a country, how the government and people of that country would react, or how the US government and people would react, would depend on the time. Russian military researchers have said that the Russian government can be sure that only threats will suffice, and that it is too dangerous. Don't play with the nucleus.

Yamaguchi: I just hope it doesn't go to that level. First of all, it will be interesting to see how the ceasefire negotiations turn out.

　This time, the Koizumi/Yamaguchi duo also announced ROLESCast.