What Putin ordered the "special posture of deterrent strength"

Yu Koizumi, a full -time lecturer at the University of Tokyo, on the Nippon Broadcasting "Koji Iida's OK! Cozy Up!" (Broadcast on March 1).Explained Russia's nuclear strategy.

Nuclear force

February 7, 2022, Russian President Putin (Reuters = Joint) Photos of President Russia (Reuters = Joint)

On February 27, Russian President Putin ordered the Minister of Defense Shoig to take a special alert against nuclear deterrent units.It seems to be a movement with nuclear force in mind.Iida) Some reports use the expression "strategic nuclear unit".Koizumi) This time, the exact words used by President Putin are "deterrent strengths" and are not limited to nuclear weapons.Koizumi) In the past, Russia has been the world's largest nuclear -secured country in the world, which has used short strategic nuclei and short tactical nuclei as a nuclear deterrence, but in the latest Russian version of the 2014 Military Doctring, "Military Doctring".Includes the concept of non -nuclear strategy deterrence.Iida) Does it include things that are not nuclear?Koizumi) It is unclear what Russia points to "deterrence" because it is said that something like a non -nuclear cruise missile can also be a deterrent.However, since the core is still a nuclear weapon, President Putin's remarks, and in fact, the Minister of Defense Shoig, the Minister of Defense, the Minister of Defense, the Continator of the Continental ballistic missile (ICBM), and the submarine unit.I am saying that I am working.The Pacific Fleet right next to Japan is also included.Iida) Is that so?Koizumi: As you say that, when you are nervous, President Putin says that it is a nuclear check, and bombers and submarines are moving near Japan.Of course, it contains nuclear weapons, so it's not a distant Europe tension, but a problem near us.Iida) Mr. Koizumi has published various discussions on Russian escalation deterrence and easing, including nuclear weapons.Do Russia not only flickers the nucleus to stop the other person or not participate, but also use it as a strategy?Koizumi) The escalation deterrence strategy has been considered in Russia in the last 25 years.The Soviet Union collapsed and your military power has weakened.Iida) In the collapse of the Soviet Union.Koizumi) If you hit the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) directly from the front, you will not be able to win, so if the war begins and you are about to lose, for example, use one shot to make a message saying, "Let's stop soon."Or, if Russia is now winning but if the United States will not win if the United States will participate, make one shot and say "don't come in" to the United States.Russia has always been thinking about how to do it.Koizumi) It's just like that.Military, even if it takes time, you can probably defeat Ukraine, but if NATO intervenes here, the situation will be disadvantageous.So, on February 19, before the war started the war, he threatened with a major nuclear unit exercise, and Putin also threatened to say, "If you go to Russia, it will be a nuclear war."rice field.However, when he saw Putin's conference, he said, "It is a non -friendly attitude to perform economic sanctions."Iida) That's right.Koizumi) Even economic sanctions are in a state of trying to deter also by nuclear threats, so I think it's a very dangerous movement, and at the same time, the Russian countermeasures are limited.I think.Iida) I see.Koizumi) In other words, it means that economic sanctions that are effective for economic sanctions cannot compete.Then, I don't think it can be excluded for "Do you really use nuclear weapons?"Iida) Cannot be excluded.Koizumi) For example, for Russia, if the current economic sanctions are unacceptable, it may be possible to demonstrate only one shot in a certain stage, such as unmanned areas or on the sea.I think.Koizumi) Reviewing the nuclear constitution in 2018 is a nuclear strategy document issued by the Trump administration.I am very concerned about this scenario.Among them, the United States dares to develop a nuclear warhead with low output, and if Russia does this, he will shoot only one shot in the same way.That's why.Iida) America.Koizumi) It may not be a so -called nuclear war, but since the United States Russia may have a nuclear exchange, it is too dangerous to say "nuclear weapons" for economic sanctions.I think not.Iida) When it was written in the 2018 nuclear state, it would be escalated if you do not retaliate, so you have to do it, but if you use an excessive thing, it will be reply to it.。Does the United States actually make low -output nuclear warheads?Koizumi) That's right.For the time being, we are deploying a battle.The consciousness of "I do not want to be a full -scale war" is the same in the United States, but as Krawzevitz says in "War theory", "violence is always necessary to defeat the opponent.It starts thinking that it is a scale, but there is a possibility that the escalation will proceed and become absolute violence. "I think this is the same as the US -Russian nuclear exchange, so I don't think it's a good problem to play with.